Kamis, 23 Mei 2013

Convergence

Following our Seeking Alpha commenter rant today, it turns out that once again, we're right. Again.

Here's the evidence, in which we take into account the Japanese Black Thursday stock market crash. Our chart below assumes that if the S&P 500 will indeed fall 18.30 points today, as the pre-market open stock price futures for the day currently indicate. Pay close attention to where the daily stock prices (dotted line) and the 20-day moving average (black line) converge:

Change in Growth Rates of Expected Future Trailing Year Dividends per Share and 20-Day Moving Average of S&P 500 Stock Prices, 22 May 2013, with futures data for 23 May 2013

Why, it's almost as if we anticipated this would happen, absent some action by the Fed....

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