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Jumat, 22 Februari 2013

The Difference Between Being Pro-American and Anti-American at the U.S. Box Office

Movie Night - source: libraries.ne.govIt's not often that we can measure something like pro or anti-American political bias in American movies, but we can today because of a unique experiment conducted by Hollywood!

The reason why is because of the uneven level of quality of most movies, which can make it extremely difficult to make direct comparisons of a characteristic like political bias between them using the measure of how well they do at the box office. For example, one movie in a given genre might have good acting, but suffers from bad writing or poor direction. Another movie might have only okay acting and direction, but features really good writing.

That's often because different movies get made by different people, which introduces a lot of random elements into their production that can affect their quality, which in turn, affects their money-making potential. And then there's the matter of what audience the movie is aimed at - a movie targeted for teens will have a different box office performance than a movie targeted toward a older segment of the movie-going public.

But what happens when you put the same creative team to work behind movies that target the same basic audience demographic in the U.S., but are very different in their pro or anti-American political sentiment?

What happens is that you take out a lot of the randomness that might otherwise make a comparison between the movies produced by the same team invalid. You get a consistency of quality in all the other elements that can affect box office performance that makes it possible to measure just how much having a pro or anti-American political bias can have at the U.S. box office.

And that's exactly what we have today, thanks to the former Academy Award for Best-Picture winning The Hurt Locker and the current Academy Award Best-Picture nominee Zero Dark Thirty!

Both movies were made by same production team, including the director and screenwriter. Although they feature different actors, the overall quality of acting in The Hurt Locker and Zero Dark Thirty is also consistent, as measured by Academy Award nominations for the lead characters in each film.

Where they differ is in their political bias in how they present their stories, in which the post 9/11 U.S. war against terror is the backdrop. The Hurt Locker suggests that U.S. military servicemen conducting operations against terrorists are psychologically-impaired, irresponsible rogue elements who are dangers to themselves and others. Zero Dark Thirty portrays American spies and secret military operatives as devoted avengers of a horrific act of terror against the United States.

Same quality movie, made the most of the same people, different political bias. Our chart below shows the cumulative U.S. box office receipts as reported by Box Office Mojo for both The Hurt Locker and Zero Dark Thirty against the number of days since release in their original theater runs. We also show the inflation-adjusted box office for The Hurt Locker in terms of constant 2012 U.S. dollars:

The Difference Between Being Pro-American and Anti-American at the U.S. Box Office

Through their first 65 days of release, Zero Dark Thirty has made over seven times as much in U.S. box office receipts as did The Hurt Locker, with nearly $90 million in receipts just in the United States. That figure then represents the real difference between being pro and anti-American at the U.S. box office.

As for why Hollywood keeps making anti-American movies even though it would appear to cost them so much at the U.S. box office, well, when it comes to America, it seems they have other values....

Jumat, 29 Juni 2012

Copyright Math and the U.S. Entertainment Industry

Can anyone trust the U.S. entertainment industry to be honest with the business numbers they make public?

We've all heard of Hollywood's accounting frauds, where even those small movies with tiny production budgets that unexpectedly go on to become huge blockbusters making millions and millions of dollars at the box office somehow never generate a profit.

But what about the other things the moguls of the entertainment industry say about their business? Things like the number of jobs and the amount of money they say are lost every year in their industry because of the damage done by copyright piracy?

Rob Reid takes on the entertainment industry's "©opyright Math™" in the following TED presentation (HT: Barry Ritholtz):

Some quick notes:

  • The diameter of a penny is 0.750 inches (19.05 mm). It takes a lot of pennies to get to Mars!

  • If Hollywood and the music industry are hurting in their pocketbooks from copyright piracy, it isn't showing up in the amount of GDP they generate in the U.S. every year. See the Congressional Research Service report below....

  • Wyden Memo from CRS on Movie Industry

  • Nor does it seem to be affecting the government's count of the number of people who work in the motion picture and sound recording industry in the U.S. each year in any meaningful way.

All in all, it appears that the answer to the question we asked at the beginning of this article is simply "No."

Kamis, 28 Juni 2012

The "Hit" Equation for Box Office Gold!

A team of Japanese physicists and mathematicians has developed a mathematical equation for predicting whether or not a movie will become a hit at the box office!

Detailed in their article, "The 'hit' phenomenon: a mathematical model of human dynamics interactions as a stochastic process" in the June 2012 edition of the New Journal of Physics, the new model replaces the traditional method of forecasting the likely revenue for a movie, which incorporates aspects such as advertising budget, strength of word-of-mouth, star power, quality, et cetera.

These aspects still have a role, but the innovation in the Japanese physicists approach is to incorporate data from social network systems, such as blogs, to quantify the less tangible aspects of the factors that influence whether or not a movie will become a blockbuster, at least at the Japanese box office.

One of the more remarkable findings of the research is that the number of positive blog posts about a movie can be used to project its revenue:

Daily blog postings for a movie are a very important signal to measure the movement of purchase intention among persons in the society. We measure the daily data of the number of posts for movies using the site Kizasi, which is a service for observing blog postings in Japan. We measure the number of blog posts for 25 movies in Japan in order to compare this information with the box office gross income for each movie in Japan....

Blog postings for each film can be distinguished into positive, negative and neutral opinions. A positive opinion means that the blogger wants to watch the film or judges the watched film in a positive way. In figure 10, we show that more than half of the blogs show a positive opinion for several movies. Moreover, we find that the ratio of positive, negative and neutral opinions is almost constant during the duration of the movie opening. Thus, the observed blog posting counts can be considered to be proportional to the counts of positive blog posts.

According to this observation, we propose to use the daily number of blog posts as the daily 'quasi-revenue.'. Quasi-revenue is very useful for analysis, because it can be defined even before the opening of the movie. We can observe the increase in anticipation of a movie.

And because they've worked out how to use the data from social networking systems to measure the anticipation for a movie, they can do very well in predicting whether a movie will actually become a hit, as well as what kind of longevity it might have if it does!

If only Hollywood had thought to do that before releasing John Carter. Or Battleship. Or Rock of Ages. Or any of these movies!

Jumat, 24 Februari 2012

Can Billy Crystal Sell Movie Tickets?

If you think about it, the Academy Awards ceremony is really just a three to four (or more!) long televised advertisement for the "Best Picture" winner.



Academy Award - Source: Michigan.gov

Our question about the Oscars this year: Can host Billy Crystal keep enough of the television audience engaged in the broadcast for long enough to be able to sell more tickets than would otherwise be sold to whatever movie wins that title?



Sure, he'll be dressed in a tux and will look like the guy who sells you movie tickets behind the bullet-proof glass at your local cineplex, but why should Hollywood have to count so much on Billy Crystal to sell their movie tickets?



That question is super-relevant this year because of the unmitigated disaster that was the 83rd Annual Academy Awards ceremony last year! That was when so much of the U.S. audience tuned out during the poorly written and directed live broadcast that the movie's box office plummetted by 15%, as the Best Picture winner took in *LESS* money at movie theaters in the week after the Oscars ceremony than it did in the week before.



It's true! We went back and compared the one-week before and one-week after box office totals for all the Best Picture winners announced since 2000 to see just how each did, using the daily box office data for each as reported by Box Office Mojo, and then calculated the percentage increase or decrease in the week after the Oscars as compared to the week before.



Our data is presented in the table below:













































































































Box Office Performance of "Best Picture" Academy Award Winners, One Week Before and After Winning
Academy Award Ceremony Date Best Picture Winner Box Office in Week Before Oscars Box Office in Week After Oscars Percentage Change
72 26 March 2000 American Beauty $5,460,072 $8,190,112 50%
73 25 March 2001 Gladiator $45,033 $474,174 953%
74 24 March 2002 A Beautiful Mind $5,499,295 $6,140,030 12%
75 23 March 2003 Chicago $9,169,194 $10,637,940 16%
76 29 February 2004 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $2,996,678 $4,094,558 37%
77 27 February 2005 Million Dollar Baby $10,538,151 $11,748,270 11%
78 05 March 2006 Crash $70,399 $342,709 387%
79 25 February 2007 The Departed $367,064 $336,608 -8%
80 24 February 2008 No Country for Old Men $3,365,401 $5,389,446 60%
81 22 February 2009 Slumdog Millionaire $11,673,672 $16,669,726 43%
82 07 March 2010 The Hurt Locker Not in theaters.
83 27 February 2011 The King's Speech $10,989,524 $9,315,074 -15%


Since 2000, the box office take of the Academy Awards' Best Picture Winner increases by an average of 22% in the week following the Oscars ceremony as compared to the week before, with the best performance being turned in by Gladiator, which was very near the end of its run in theaters when it won.



The worst however was last year's announced winner The King's Speech, which dropped like a rock after it won. Its only competition for losing money was the Best Picture winner announced in 2007, The Departed, the ceremony for which was also negatively reviewed.



By contrast, the years for which we have data in which Billy Crystal hosted the Oscars (2000 and 2004) saw the box office take for the Best Picture winners jump upward by an above average of 43% - more than double the average post-Oscar bump. It's no accident that Billy Crystal is back....



There just aren't many Oscar hosts who are as gifted at selling movie tickets!



Previously on Political Calculations